The Research vs. the Me-Search on the Jewish Vote

In these midterm elections, there has been widespread speculation about the Jewish vote. Republicans and others have projected an exodus of Jewish voters from the Democratic Party, just as they have each election cycle.

These predictions have never come true, and a new, national poll released today by the non-partisan Jewish Voters Resource Center (JVRC) found that it’s not happening in 2026. According to this new poll, slightly more than two-thirds (67%) of Jewish voters will support Democrats in the midterms. This is the exact same number JVRC found in a similar poll in May, demonstrating that the Jewish vote is both static and overwhelmingly supportive of Democrats.

We all live in bubbles, heightened by social media algorithms, which can create echo chambers. In such a context, it’s easy to believe that political trends are heading in certain directions, views that are exacerbated by what we hear from friends, family, and in our social circles.

One can call this kind of political prognosticating “me-search,” meaning that you think you know where an election is heading based on what you’re hearing at mahjong or on the golf course. In reality, it’s a safer bet to rely on data and research instead of me-search.

So here’s what the research says:

➡️ 67% of Jewish voters will support Dems in the midterms (same as May)

➡️25% Trump job approval rating (⬇️ 3% since May)

➡️22% favorable view of Donald Trump (⬇️ 2% since May)

➡️ 14% favorable view of J.D. Vance (⬇️ 5% since May)

The top two issues driving Jewish voters are the cost of living/affordability and the future of our democracy.
On these issues and others, Jewish voters overwhelmingly align with Democrats and strongly disapprove of Republicans under Trump, whom 81% believe is a criminal, 76% believe is corrupt, 75% believe is dangerous, 71% believe is racist, and 49% believe is antisemitic. Donald Trump is anathema to Jewish voters.

Antisemitism is the third most important issue driving the Jewish vote, followed by healthcare and Israel.
89% of Jewish voters are concerned about rising antisemitism in the United States. Seventy-one percent feel an emotional attachment to Israel – about which there is a sharp generational divide – with 67% also disapproving of the current Israeli government’s policies in the West Bank and Gaza. These numbers demonstrate that Jewish Americans are holding multiple truths – they are connected to Israel and disapprove of the policies of Netanyahu’s government.

Trump, Vance, and the GOP remain deeply unpopular with Jewish voters.
While support for Democrats has remained incredibly static among Jewish voters, support for Trump, Vance, and the GOP they control has decreased since May, and we expect it will continue to do so heading into November given the issues prioritized by Jewish voters. J.D. Vance’s approval ratings are abysmal with American Jews.

This is the research, but polls don’t vote or win elections. The Jewish vote is a critical component of a winning Democratic coalition, and it can’t be taken for granted. Join and support JDCA’s efforts to make these numbers a reality at the ballot box.